The Convention Bounce

Did the national conventions cause either of the candidates to go up in the polls? This is the question everyone is asking. The parties devoted so much money and effort to the conventions. They were certainly hoping voters would see their candidates in a more favorable light. 

Candidates usually see a boost in poll numbers immediately following their conventions. This is called the convention "bounce." On average in recent elections, the bounce has been about 5 or 6 percentage points for each candidate. 

Convention Bounce Facts
*Bill Clinton enjoyed the biggest convention bounce in recent history. After the 1992 Democratic convention, his support rose by 16 percent.
*John Kerry actually lost support after the 2004 Democratic convention, dropping about 1 percent in the polls. 

How did the Republican and Democratic candidates fare this year? 

Here's a fun convention bounce activity for your homeschool student. The activity will help increase knowledge of polling and sharpen graphing skills. 

• Go to the Real Clear Politics presidential election tracing polls. In particular, use the chart RCP has created. You can move your cursor over the dates to see the percentages of people who said they would vote for Trump or Clinton if the election were held on that day. 
• Download the chart below. 
• In red, mark the percent of voters supporting Donald Trump on the following dates: July 5, 15, 25, 30, and August 5. (Note: the Republican convention was July 18-21). 
• In blue, mark the percent of voters supporting Hillary Clinton on the same dates. (Note: the Democratic convention was July 25-28). 
• Connect the dots for each candidate. 

Now take a look at the line graph and answer the following questions. 

• Did Trump get a convention bounce? How many percentage points was it?
• Did Clinton get a convention bounce? How many percentage points was it?
• Did the conventions matter?

convention_bounce.pdf
File Size:	31 kb
File Type:	pdf

Download File

---